Just in Time

The market open at 1.3577  (EURUSD), the weakest point in about 7 months. Since EURCHF broke 1.2 in last week, Euro was all the way down and it seems don’t want to stop it yet. Just at the moment when I hope this shows up. There is fancy graph you can refer to.

Ta Ta…

27 Mar. 2010

There is a depiction of pre-crisis life of Britain I found in the website of Economist, as sarcastic, gloomy and murmuring as ever.

You can find the complete article in here

“It was only three years ago, but it feels as though aeons have passed. Back then, the British economy was the strongest in Europe. Open and competitive markets made British the poster child for globalisation in the rich world. Central-bank independence and (supposedly) prudent budgetary management helped produce a vintage period of steady and rapid expansion. British workers were admirably reluctant to strike; British chancellor tiresomely wont to lecture finance ministers in mainland Europe about their superior policies. And British Airways was the world’s favorite airline.”


from The Wall Street Journal


美國勞工部(Labor Department)週五公佈﹐10月份失業率上升0.4個百分點﹐至10.2%。接受道瓊斯通訊社(Dow Jones Newswires)調查的經濟學家此前預計10月份失業率升至9.9%。










By Nick Godt from The Wall Street Journal (Translate from MarketWatch)

大學(New York University)經濟學家魯比尼(Nouriel Roubini)週三表示﹐包括股票、新興市場和大宗商品在內的各種市場﹐上漲幅度過高﹐速度過快﹐因為全球經濟將經歷的是一種疲弱復蘇﹐而不會是人們期待的V型反彈。



魯比尼在舉行於紐約證券交易所(NYSE)的“Inside Commodities”大會上發表報告時說:“我會認為﹐已出現的上漲﹐幅度過大、速度過快。如果復蘇為V型﹐那麼這種上漲是合理的。但我相信﹐復蘇將是U型﹐在這種情況下﹐這些資產價格可能是雙邊波動﹐不然就有可能出現調整。”














Copy-Google's China Music Service Gains Fans

Google’s China Music Service Gains Fans

By Loretta Chao from The Wall Street Journal

Google Inc.’s online music service in China is now providing about five million songs a day and is starting to attract major advertisers though its revenue remains small, a top executive at the U.S. search company’s Chinese partner said.

Google’s music search, launched in March and currently available only in China, has been closely watched by the music industry because it is the only major service in the world to let users download and stream licensed songs free.

The service is a joint venture between Google and Top100.cn, a site owned by Chinese company Orca Digital.

Offering the first details on how the venture is performing, Gary Chen, chief executive of Orca Digital, said in an interview that five advertisers have signed on for the service so far, including Nokia Corp., Apple Inc. and Volkswagen AG, with total commitments of 2.5 million yuan ($370,000).

Orca Digital and Google expect to sign several more ad deals that could bring in $1 million each, and hope to have a total of 30 advertisers within a half year, he said.

Other music services around the world currently require users to buy individual songs or albums, or pay subscription fees. Those approaches have had limited effectiveness in combating online music piracy that has devastated the music business in recent years.

But with CD sales sinking, music companies have become more willing to experiment with new business models.

The Google China service includes tracks from the world-wide catalogues of the world’s four biggest music labels, Warner Music Group Corp., Vivendi SA’s Universal Music, EMI Group Ltd., and Sony Corp.’s Sony Music Entertainment.

The service offers roughly 700,000 tracks now, up from 350,000 in March, and Mr. Chen said this will increase to 1.1 million tracks by the end of the year.

Under the venture’s structure, Orca Digital shares roughly half of any ad revenues with the music labels. Google benefits from increased traffic on its Chinese site, and can sell search ads on the music search pages on its site.

Google and the labels hope the service will draw users away from the U.S. search giant’s Chinese competitors, especially Baidu Inc., which had a 61% share of search revenue in China as of the second quarter compared with Google’s 29%, according to research firm Analysys International.

Baidu and other Chinese search sites have generated significant traffic through search pages that help users find and download unlicensed music tracks.

Music industry executives say they also hope Google’s music service will let them track which artists and songs are popular in China, something that has been difficult in this market because of unreliable data.

Other models have gained traction among users elsewhere, like London-based ad-supported streaming music service Spotify Ltd. has in Europe.

Spotify has more than five million users who can listen to streaming music with commercials, or pay to listen to ad-free streams, and has said it plans to launch in the U.S. and China as well.






晚上看完一篇張五常的博客(凱恩斯學派的不幸),一方面是說凱恩斯學派在花錢救市上錯得離譜,說克魯格曼錯得離譜,奧巴馬的經濟團隊對於撒錢救市的效果簡直愚忠麻木到荒唐的地步.從目前美國的狀況來看的確是這樣的,8千億砸下去,當初的目標是把失業率控制在8%以下,而如今已經是奔10去了,但克魯格曼人說了,”不是沒效果,是錢沒花夠,你沒看見利率幾乎為零了嗎(zero lower bound on interest rates),按照計算這錢就是沒花夠”.張五常在罵,克魯格曼也在罵,不過張五常罵的是政策出發點不對頭南轅北轍(他主張應該放寬銀根,同時制度上為企業用工創造便利),而克魯格曼罵的是錢撒得不夠多.




Things seem a bit different?

Since Sina post the ads that ” Talk to Paul Krugman–the laureate of Nobel prize in economics” I was looking forward to the show and utterly curious about what his tongue will be. This morning (or saying noon?) I read this post in Paul’s blog and realise that the ” Chinese specilised socialism” has never changed.

I repost the article here…….. 

A brief moment of sanity

OK, I’ve got a small break in my trip. Right now I’m in … actually, given what the past week has been like, I’m not going to say, since I really really don’t want reporters calling.

I hope that when China develops a bit further, it will revise its notion of how long a speech plus discussion should last. 2 1/2 hours, twice a day, plus meetings with umpteen business and government officials, kind of wears you down.

And yes, as some commentators noticed, the posters did read “Great prophet in China.” Embarrassing.

A bit of macro in my next post. Then I really do have to grade term papers.

PS: And yes, it did feel like Lost in Translation — including the disorienting appearance on a TV show (on the day I arrived, no less.) No Suntory ads, though.



轉自Paul Krugman的博客,關於那個最近讓民主黨和共和黨罵街,讓奧巴馬不得已跳出來扇自己兩耳光做和事佬,拿政府bailout來發獎金,目前仍然在金融市場還有曼聯胸前活蹦亂跳的,AIG.而話講在這裡,AIG只是Paul遷怒的對象(當然這不是說他對AIG這么干沒意見),他真正有意見的是承諾改變但從來不變的這屆政府.從奧巴馬還沒上臺Paul就已經開始不斷的質疑,發問,究竟這個人的這個team可以給美國帶來什麽?而他也不止一次的說過,其實奧巴馬什麽都不會改,什麽都不能變:政策,人事….而他的經濟刺激計劃更像是玩大富翁–只要手氣好,RP強,收拾殘局沒問題.

眾人皆醉獨他醒.11年前亞洲金融危機時他提出控制資金流(controls on capital outflows)的言論當時被業內認為是可怕的(horribly),非正統的(unorthodox),不負責任的(irresposible)建議.11年后又一次金融危機到來的時候,資金控制已經成了IMF緊急救助計劃的一個主要組成部分.什麽是真知灼見?搬來海賊王里一句臺詞:男人做事響當當嘛…




Preliminary thoughts on the tax bill:

1. It’s not the way you should make policy — it’s clumsy, and it will punish some innocent parties while letting the most guilty off scot-free

2. But — there wasn’t much alternative at this point. And for that I blame the Obama people.

I’ll leave to others the question of who knew or should have known that the bonus firestorm was coming; but it’s part of a pattern. At every stage, Geithner et al
have made it clear that they still have faith in the people who created
the financial crisis — that they believe that all we have is a
liquidity crisis that can be undone with a bit of financial
engineering, that “governments do a bad job of running banks” (as
opposed, presumably, to the wonderful job the private bankers have
done), that financial bailouts and guarantees should come with no
strings attached.

This was bad analysis, bad policy, and terrible politics. This
administration, elected on the promise of change, has already managed,
in an astonishingly short time, to create the impression that it’s
owned by the wheeler-dealers. And that leaves it with no ability to counter crude populism.




"The Dow’s losses accelerated as the closing bell approached, leaving the blue-chip measure down 733.08 points for the day, off 7.9%, at 8577.91, hurt by losses in twenty-nine of its 30 components. The only exception was Coca-Cola, which climbed 1.1% after posting a strong profit report. The Dow has retraced more than half of its point gain between Friday’s low and Monday’s close. The decline Wednesday was the worst on a percentage basis since Oct. 26, 1987."–The Wall Street Journal