Just in Time

The market open at 1.3577  (EURUSD), the weakest point in about 7 months. Since EURCHF broke 1.2 in last week, Euro was all the way down and it seems don’t want to stop it yet. Just at the moment when I hope this shows up. There is fancy graph you can refer to.

Ta Ta…

27 Mar. 2010

There is a depiction of pre-crisis life of Britain I found in the website of Economist, as sarcastic, gloomy and murmuring as ever.

You can find the complete article in here

“It was only three years ago, but it feels as though aeons have passed. Back then, the British economy was the strongest in Europe. Open and competitive markets made British the poster child for globalisation in the rich world. Central-bank independence and (supposedly) prudent budgetary management helped produce a vintage period of steady and rapid expansion. British workers were admirably reluctant to strike; British chancellor tiresomely wont to lecture finance ministers in mainland Europe about their superior policies. And British Airways was the world’s favorite airline.”

轉-美國10月份失業率升至10.2%﹐26年來最高水平

from The Wall Street Journal

國10月份失業率升幅超過預期﹐創逾26年來最高水平﹐新增失業人數也超過預期。這說明在美國經濟擺脫深度衰退之際﹐就業形勢依然嚴峻。

美國勞工部(Labor Department)週五公佈﹐10月份失業率上升0.4個百分點﹐至10.2%。接受道瓊斯通訊社(Dow Jones Newswires)調查的經濟學家此前預計10月份失業率升至9.9%。

10月份非農就業人數減少19萬人﹐其中﹐建築業、製造業和零售業的就業人數降幅最大。經濟學家此前預計10月份非農就業人數減少175,000人。

自2007年12月美國經濟陷入衰退以來﹐失業人數已經增加820萬人﹐失業率提高了5.3個百分點。

週五公佈的數據顯示﹐10月份平均小時工資增加0.05美元﹐至18.72美元﹐增幅0.3%。

服務業就業人數10月份減少61,000人。

商業和專業服務公司就業人數減少18,000人。零售業就業人數減少40,000人﹐休閒及餐飲業就業人數減少37,000人。

政府部門就業人數與9月份持平。

10月份平均每週工作時間也持平於33.0小時。

轉-末日博士魯比尼:市場狂歡將悲慘收場

末日博士魯比尼:市場狂歡將悲慘收場

By Nick Godt from The Wall Street Journal (Translate from MarketWatch)

大學(New York University)經濟學家魯比尼(Nouriel Roubini)週三表示﹐包括股票、新興市場和大宗商品在內的各種市場﹐上漲幅度過高﹐速度過快﹐因為全球經濟將經歷的是一種疲弱復蘇﹐而不會是人們期待的V型反彈。

因預言樓市崩潰和信貸危機而成名的魯比尼說﹐當前市場的狂歡還將進行六個月。

但他告誡說﹐狂歡終將狼狽收場﹐因為3月份以來資產價格的上漲﹐在很大程度上是全球巨量流動性造就的又一個泡沫。

魯比尼在舉行於紐約證券交易所(NYSE)的“Inside Commodities”大會上發表報告時說:“我會認為﹐已出現的上漲﹐幅度過大、速度過快。如果復蘇為V型﹐那麼這種上漲是合理的。但我相信﹐復蘇將是U型﹐在這種情況下﹐這些資產價格可能是雙邊波動﹐不然就有可能出現調整。”

3月份以前股市狂跌﹐油價從每桶145美元一路下瀉到30美元﹐這一階段市場的預期是經濟將陷入蕭條。

他說﹐在大規模財政刺激與寬鬆的貨幣政策作用下﹐蕭條風險已經顯著降低。

但隨著寬鬆政策再度推動大宗商品價格上漲﹐另外的風險也在重新出現。魯比尼說﹐事實證明﹐就在信貸危機開始發生的時候﹐去年油價上漲至145美元﹐引爆了全球經濟危機。

他警告說﹐在過剩流動性和過度投機的推動下﹐油價如果上漲至100美元﹐可能會成為剛剛出現的全球復蘇的“當頭一棒”。

退出策略

這位紐約大學的經濟學家認為﹐消費仍然缺乏力度﹐特別是美國的消費﹐而第三季度回歸增長﹐主要是受益於政府的刺激措施。

這些措施可能會繼續刺激增長﹐一直到明年早期。但如果消費不能迅猛復蘇並取代政府支出﹐隨著美國和世界各地從寬鬆貨幣政策中退出﹐市場將面臨越來越大的風險。

魯比尼說﹐如果退出過快﹐就有可能發生雙底型衰退﹐“像日本或1937年的美國所發生的情況”。他說﹐如果退出所費時間過長﹐則有可能造成一種財政上的災難﹐並推升通貨膨脹。

魯比尼表示﹐過去一年股票、大宗商品和其他風險資產的大幅上漲﹐性質都是一樣的。而放大這種漲勢的﹐不僅有美聯儲(Fed)將利率維持在近零水平的政策﹐而且也有美聯儲購買國債的措施﹔通過這些政策﹐短期和長期利率都被壓低﹐從而降低了市場的波動性。

魯比尼說﹐這種漲勢一崩潰﹐情況就會變得很糟糕﹐所有現在做空美元的人都將解除頭寸﹐引發一輪搶購風潮。

這位經濟學家認為﹐美元終將大幅反彈。美聯儲最終會停止購買國債﹐而加息的可能性﹐在加強市場波動之際﹐也會推高美元匯率。

魯比尼說:“如果市場是對的﹐且並經濟將出現V型復蘇﹐那麼美聯儲提高利率﹐美元急劇反彈。另外一個風險是﹐如果市場擔心出現雙底(衰退)﹐那麼美元將因為避險需求而大幅走強。”

“有多種理由認為﹐美元可能會急劇反彈﹐市場可能出現崩潰。”

Copy-Google's China Music Service Gains Fans

Google’s China Music Service Gains Fans

By Loretta Chao from The Wall Street Journal

Google Inc.’s online music service in China is now providing about five million songs a day and is starting to attract major advertisers though its revenue remains small, a top executive at the U.S. search company’s Chinese partner said.

Google’s music search, launched in March and currently available only in China, has been closely watched by the music industry because it is the only major service in the world to let users download and stream licensed songs free.

The service is a joint venture between Google and Top100.cn, a site owned by Chinese company Orca Digital.

Offering the first details on how the venture is performing, Gary Chen, chief executive of Orca Digital, said in an interview that five advertisers have signed on for the service so far, including Nokia Corp., Apple Inc. and Volkswagen AG, with total commitments of 2.5 million yuan ($370,000).

Orca Digital and Google expect to sign several more ad deals that could bring in $1 million each, and hope to have a total of 30 advertisers within a half year, he said.

Other music services around the world currently require users to buy individual songs or albums, or pay subscription fees. Those approaches have had limited effectiveness in combating online music piracy that has devastated the music business in recent years.

But with CD sales sinking, music companies have become more willing to experiment with new business models.

The Google China service includes tracks from the world-wide catalogues of the world’s four biggest music labels, Warner Music Group Corp., Vivendi SA’s Universal Music, EMI Group Ltd., and Sony Corp.’s Sony Music Entertainment.

The service offers roughly 700,000 tracks now, up from 350,000 in March, and Mr. Chen said this will increase to 1.1 million tracks by the end of the year.

Under the venture’s structure, Orca Digital shares roughly half of any ad revenues with the music labels. Google benefits from increased traffic on its Chinese site, and can sell search ads on the music search pages on its site.

Google and the labels hope the service will draw users away from the U.S. search giant’s Chinese competitors, especially Baidu Inc., which had a 61% share of search revenue in China as of the second quarter compared with Google’s 29%, according to research firm Analysys International.

Baidu and other Chinese search sites have generated significant traffic through search pages that help users find and download unlicensed music tracks.

Music industry executives say they also hope Google’s music service will let them track which artists and songs are popular in China, something that has been difficult in this market because of unreliable data.

Other models have gained traction among users elsewhere, like London-based ad-supported streaming music service Spotify Ltd. has in Europe.

Spotify has more than five million users who can listen to streaming music with commercials, or pay to listen to ad-free streams, and has said it plans to launch in the U.S. and China as well.

2009-07-22

在把最底下那篇叫[觀後感]的日誌隱藏以後,長久以來一直困擾的一個問題解決了–左邊的側邊欄啊他又回來了.之前很長一段時間只有用Firefox的時候博客的模板顯示才正常,只要一切換到ie側邊欄就消失了,我還以為是ie的問題,想不到是日誌作祟…那篇日誌是在Word上寫好以後粘貼過來的,莫非是代碼衝突?有時間讓snow研究下,如果他有空的話.

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

這幾天一直堅持跑步,體力慢慢恢復,可是肚子還沒有下去,大腿半肥瘦得也很秀色可餐.

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

晚上看完一篇張五常的博客(凱恩斯學派的不幸),一方面是說凱恩斯學派在花錢救市上錯得離譜,說克魯格曼錯得離譜,奧巴馬的經濟團隊對於撒錢救市的效果簡直愚忠麻木到荒唐的地步.從目前美國的狀況來看的確是這樣的,8千億砸下去,當初的目標是把失業率控制在8%以下,而如今已經是奔10去了,但克魯格曼人說了,”不是沒效果,是錢沒花夠,你沒看見利率幾乎為零了嗎(zero lower bound on interest rates),按照計算這錢就是沒花夠”.張五常在罵,克魯格曼也在罵,不過張五常罵的是政策出發點不對頭南轅北轍(他主張應該放寬銀根,同時制度上為企業用工創造便利),而克魯格曼罵的是錢撒得不夠多.

從事實上來看是張五常的論斷有理:拿我們國家來說,首先我國可以說是目前世界上經濟數據表現較好的國家,但表現在哪裡呢,進出口,發電量,GDP,股市,樓市更是風騷…進出口,發電量這些數據有天朝和諧的因素而且相對其他數據表現較差這裡可以不去管它,GDP是幾年前的基建項目按期或提前上馬,靠的是政府從公積金,養老保險,醫療保險等等社會福利以及地方政府發債,銀行貸款籌集來的資金.這其中最重要是銀行的信貸,這些貸款輕易的都流向了政府導向的基建投資從而推動了GDP(這也是10年前中國各大銀行壞賬成堆的原因),但同時真正對解決需求有幫助中小企業很難拿到貸款.再看股市樓市,隨著銀行銀根放鬆,市場情緒麻木觸底,由股票型基金牽頭(目前股票型基金倉位處於歷史最高點),大量資金湧入股市造成現在的泡沫,五顏六色看起來很美.華爾街日報無奈的說,與其擔心泡沫,不如利用現在這個環境賺他一筆…真散戶知音也.而樓市的火爆一方面是由市場情緒積壓后集中釋放,從二手房交易開始,而後轉為上市地產商利用股市融資投機炒地,再融資,再抄地的反復操作,加上捂盤的手法,炒高房價,刺激市場.而無論從哪方面看,銀行銀根放鬆,新勞動法實施不嚴都對上半年的中國經濟產生了決定性的影響.

另一方,張五常講的,就是治學的問題了.經濟學,從來就火,而且越來越火,特別是現在,簡直是功成名就的好機會,靠的就是對市場未來推測,對制定經濟政策的主張.而張五常要說的,是我們的經濟學家對最基本的經濟學原理不理解,不應用,而是拿著純數學的圖表說事.而我的理解是,數學,對於任何理工科而言,都只是工具.具體到經濟學,經濟學首先應該是倫理學然後才是數學.經濟學中最基本的假設都是人在各種市場環境下的反應,只不過,通過數學(圖表,公式)的方式進行表達而已.而倫理學是什麽,倫理學是人如何為人,人如何在社會關係中完善自我.說白了構成經濟的最主要因素是人自身的活動,數學,只是用於表達這樣的活動并總結一定的規律,這些規律從根本上說是純數學的,有用,無用都應該以人自身活動的分析作為出發點.說白了,經濟學他就是琢磨人的啊.

今天話有點多…洗洗睡了

Things seem a bit different?

Since Sina post the ads that ” Talk to Paul Krugman–the laureate of Nobel prize in economics” I was looking forward to the show and utterly curious about what his tongue will be. This morning (or saying noon?) I read this post in Paul’s blog and realise that the ” Chinese specilised socialism” has never changed.

I repost the article here…….. 

A brief moment of sanity

OK, I’ve got a small break in my trip. Right now I’m in … actually, given what the past week has been like, I’m not going to say, since I really really don’t want reporters calling.

I hope that when China develops a bit further, it will revise its notion of how long a speech plus discussion should last. 2 1/2 hours, twice a day, plus meetings with umpteen business and government officials, kind of wears you down.

And yes, as some commentators noticed, the posters did read “Great prophet in China.” Embarrassing.

A bit of macro in my next post. Then I really do have to grade term papers.

PS: And yes, it did feel like Lost in Translation — including the disorienting appearance on a TV show (on the day I arrived, no less.) No Suntory ads, though.

 

轉–AIG

轉自Paul Krugman的博客,關於那個最近讓民主黨和共和黨罵街,讓奧巴馬不得已跳出來扇自己兩耳光做和事佬,拿政府bailout來發獎金,目前仍然在金融市場還有曼聯胸前活蹦亂跳的,AIG.而話講在這裡,AIG只是Paul遷怒的對象(當然這不是說他對AIG這么干沒意見),他真正有意見的是承諾改變但從來不變的這屆政府.從奧巴馬還沒上臺Paul就已經開始不斷的質疑,發問,究竟這個人的這個team可以給美國帶來什麽?而他也不止一次的說過,其實奧巴馬什麽都不會改,什麽都不能變:政策,人事….而他的經濟刺激計劃更像是玩大富翁–只要手氣好,RP強,收拾殘局沒問題.

眾人皆醉獨他醒.11年前亞洲金融危機時他提出控制資金流(controls on capital outflows)的言論當時被業內認為是可怕的(horribly),非正統的(unorthodox),不負責任的(irresposible)建議.11年后又一次金融危機到來的時候,資金控制已經成了IMF緊急救助計劃的一個主要組成部分.什麽是真知灼見?搬來海賊王里一句臺詞:男人做事響當當嘛…

那么,讓我們再懷念一下那句不知道是誰說過的名言:一個好的懷疑論者,不是一個好公民.

原文鏈接:http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/20/aig/

AIG

Preliminary thoughts on the tax bill:

1. It’s not the way you should make policy — it’s clumsy, and it will punish some innocent parties while letting the most guilty off scot-free

2. But — there wasn’t much alternative at this point. And for that I blame the Obama people.

I’ll leave to others the question of who knew or should have known that the bonus firestorm was coming; but it’s part of a pattern. At every stage, Geithner et al
have made it clear that they still have faith in the people who created
the financial crisis — that they believe that all we have is a
liquidity crisis that can be undone with a bit of financial
engineering, that “governments do a bad job of running banks” (as
opposed, presumably, to the wonderful job the private bankers have
done), that financial bailouts and guarantees should come with no
strings attached.

This was bad analysis, bad policy, and terrible politics. This
administration, elected on the promise of change, has already managed,
in an astonishingly short time, to create the impression that it’s
owned by the wheeler-dealers. And that leaves it with no ability to counter crude populism.

 

 

道指狂跌还有我的赌局

"The Dow’s losses accelerated as the closing bell approached, leaving the blue-chip measure down 733.08 points for the day, off 7.9%, at 8577.91, hurt by losses in twenty-nine of its 30 components. The only exception was Coca-Cola, which climbed 1.1% after posting a strong profit report. The Dow has retraced more than half of its point gain between Friday’s low and Monday’s close. The decline Wednesday was the worst on a percentage basis since Oct. 26, 1987."–The Wall Street Journal

渠化工程上到一半,书记一脸淫笑告诉我道指又在狂泻,而且这次是21年来的单日最大百分跌幅,如果说前天936点的单日最大点涨幅是对整个欧洲政府务实的救市计划的赞赏,那么今天的暴跌就是对布什政府盲目无知的批评.于此同时,美股的所反应的美国金融体系制度上的缺陷正在为我赢得一个又一个的赌局,尽管我知道那些干脆面是一箩筐不可能兑现的坏账.那么这里我再次重申,这次的危机,是美国偏离自由经济规律的制度性的危机,如果美国政府不在制度上进行改革(比如加强政府监控,着手对现行金融管理制度进行整合,对现行金融衍生产品进行控制和审核等等),那么,美国将在未来两年或者更长时间内处于经济衰退的境地.不过现在看来,这样的举措只能是大选之后的是,搞笑如布什者只有继续荒唐下去的理由,还是让他安心的臭下去吧.

最近忙于出国材料和GMAT的准备,异常烦躁,焦虑,及苦闷,只能每日看着美帝国主义日渐腐朽堕落略感慰籍,各位就姑且看着这场戏演下去吧,身处这样的大时代,我很知足.

ps:华尔街缺血不缺钱,雷曼的CEO小命堪忧!