Just in Time

The market open at 1.3577  (EURUSD), the weakest point in about 7 months. Since EURCHF broke 1.2 in last week, Euro was all the way down and it seems don’t want to stop it yet. Just at the moment when I hope this shows up. There is fancy graph you can refer to.

Ta Ta…

轉-美國10月份失業率升至10.2%﹐26年來最高水平

from The Wall Street Journal

國10月份失業率升幅超過預期﹐創逾26年來最高水平﹐新增失業人數也超過預期。這說明在美國經濟擺脫深度衰退之際﹐就業形勢依然嚴峻。

美國勞工部(Labor Department)週五公佈﹐10月份失業率上升0.4個百分點﹐至10.2%。接受道瓊斯通訊社(Dow Jones Newswires)調查的經濟學家此前預計10月份失業率升至9.9%。

10月份非農就業人數減少19萬人﹐其中﹐建築業、製造業和零售業的就業人數降幅最大。經濟學家此前預計10月份非農就業人數減少175,000人。

自2007年12月美國經濟陷入衰退以來﹐失業人數已經增加820萬人﹐失業率提高了5.3個百分點。

週五公佈的數據顯示﹐10月份平均小時工資增加0.05美元﹐至18.72美元﹐增幅0.3%。

服務業就業人數10月份減少61,000人。

商業和專業服務公司就業人數減少18,000人。零售業就業人數減少40,000人﹐休閒及餐飲業就業人數減少37,000人。

政府部門就業人數與9月份持平。

10月份平均每週工作時間也持平於33.0小時。

轉-末日博士魯比尼:市場狂歡將悲慘收場

末日博士魯比尼:市場狂歡將悲慘收場

By Nick Godt from The Wall Street Journal (Translate from MarketWatch)

大學(New York University)經濟學家魯比尼(Nouriel Roubini)週三表示﹐包括股票、新興市場和大宗商品在內的各種市場﹐上漲幅度過高﹐速度過快﹐因為全球經濟將經歷的是一種疲弱復蘇﹐而不會是人們期待的V型反彈。

因預言樓市崩潰和信貸危機而成名的魯比尼說﹐當前市場的狂歡還將進行六個月。

但他告誡說﹐狂歡終將狼狽收場﹐因為3月份以來資產價格的上漲﹐在很大程度上是全球巨量流動性造就的又一個泡沫。

魯比尼在舉行於紐約證券交易所(NYSE)的“Inside Commodities”大會上發表報告時說:“我會認為﹐已出現的上漲﹐幅度過大、速度過快。如果復蘇為V型﹐那麼這種上漲是合理的。但我相信﹐復蘇將是U型﹐在這種情況下﹐這些資產價格可能是雙邊波動﹐不然就有可能出現調整。”

3月份以前股市狂跌﹐油價從每桶145美元一路下瀉到30美元﹐這一階段市場的預期是經濟將陷入蕭條。

他說﹐在大規模財政刺激與寬鬆的貨幣政策作用下﹐蕭條風險已經顯著降低。

但隨著寬鬆政策再度推動大宗商品價格上漲﹐另外的風險也在重新出現。魯比尼說﹐事實證明﹐就在信貸危機開始發生的時候﹐去年油價上漲至145美元﹐引爆了全球經濟危機。

他警告說﹐在過剩流動性和過度投機的推動下﹐油價如果上漲至100美元﹐可能會成為剛剛出現的全球復蘇的“當頭一棒”。

退出策略

這位紐約大學的經濟學家認為﹐消費仍然缺乏力度﹐特別是美國的消費﹐而第三季度回歸增長﹐主要是受益於政府的刺激措施。

這些措施可能會繼續刺激增長﹐一直到明年早期。但如果消費不能迅猛復蘇並取代政府支出﹐隨著美國和世界各地從寬鬆貨幣政策中退出﹐市場將面臨越來越大的風險。

魯比尼說﹐如果退出過快﹐就有可能發生雙底型衰退﹐“像日本或1937年的美國所發生的情況”。他說﹐如果退出所費時間過長﹐則有可能造成一種財政上的災難﹐並推升通貨膨脹。

魯比尼表示﹐過去一年股票、大宗商品和其他風險資產的大幅上漲﹐性質都是一樣的。而放大這種漲勢的﹐不僅有美聯儲(Fed)將利率維持在近零水平的政策﹐而且也有美聯儲購買國債的措施﹔通過這些政策﹐短期和長期利率都被壓低﹐從而降低了市場的波動性。

魯比尼說﹐這種漲勢一崩潰﹐情況就會變得很糟糕﹐所有現在做空美元的人都將解除頭寸﹐引發一輪搶購風潮。

這位經濟學家認為﹐美元終將大幅反彈。美聯儲最終會停止購買國債﹐而加息的可能性﹐在加強市場波動之際﹐也會推高美元匯率。

魯比尼說:“如果市場是對的﹐且並經濟將出現V型復蘇﹐那麼美聯儲提高利率﹐美元急劇反彈。另外一個風險是﹐如果市場擔心出現雙底(衰退)﹐那麼美元將因為避險需求而大幅走強。”

“有多種理由認為﹐美元可能會急劇反彈﹐市場可能出現崩潰。”

Copy-Google's China Music Service Gains Fans

Google’s China Music Service Gains Fans

By Loretta Chao from The Wall Street Journal

Google Inc.’s online music service in China is now providing about five million songs a day and is starting to attract major advertisers though its revenue remains small, a top executive at the U.S. search company’s Chinese partner said.

Google’s music search, launched in March and currently available only in China, has been closely watched by the music industry because it is the only major service in the world to let users download and stream licensed songs free.

The service is a joint venture between Google and Top100.cn, a site owned by Chinese company Orca Digital.

Offering the first details on how the venture is performing, Gary Chen, chief executive of Orca Digital, said in an interview that five advertisers have signed on for the service so far, including Nokia Corp., Apple Inc. and Volkswagen AG, with total commitments of 2.5 million yuan ($370,000).

Orca Digital and Google expect to sign several more ad deals that could bring in $1 million each, and hope to have a total of 30 advertisers within a half year, he said.

Other music services around the world currently require users to buy individual songs or albums, or pay subscription fees. Those approaches have had limited effectiveness in combating online music piracy that has devastated the music business in recent years.

But with CD sales sinking, music companies have become more willing to experiment with new business models.

The Google China service includes tracks from the world-wide catalogues of the world’s four biggest music labels, Warner Music Group Corp., Vivendi SA’s Universal Music, EMI Group Ltd., and Sony Corp.’s Sony Music Entertainment.

The service offers roughly 700,000 tracks now, up from 350,000 in March, and Mr. Chen said this will increase to 1.1 million tracks by the end of the year.

Under the venture’s structure, Orca Digital shares roughly half of any ad revenues with the music labels. Google benefits from increased traffic on its Chinese site, and can sell search ads on the music search pages on its site.

Google and the labels hope the service will draw users away from the U.S. search giant’s Chinese competitors, especially Baidu Inc., which had a 61% share of search revenue in China as of the second quarter compared with Google’s 29%, according to research firm Analysys International.

Baidu and other Chinese search sites have generated significant traffic through search pages that help users find and download unlicensed music tracks.

Music industry executives say they also hope Google’s music service will let them track which artists and songs are popular in China, something that has been difficult in this market because of unreliable data.

Other models have gained traction among users elsewhere, like London-based ad-supported streaming music service Spotify Ltd. has in Europe.

Spotify has more than five million users who can listen to streaming music with commercials, or pay to listen to ad-free streams, and has said it plans to launch in the U.S. and China as well.

轉–AIG

轉自Paul Krugman的博客,關於那個最近讓民主黨和共和黨罵街,讓奧巴馬不得已跳出來扇自己兩耳光做和事佬,拿政府bailout來發獎金,目前仍然在金融市場還有曼聯胸前活蹦亂跳的,AIG.而話講在這裡,AIG只是Paul遷怒的對象(當然這不是說他對AIG這么干沒意見),他真正有意見的是承諾改變但從來不變的這屆政府.從奧巴馬還沒上臺Paul就已經開始不斷的質疑,發問,究竟這個人的這個team可以給美國帶來什麽?而他也不止一次的說過,其實奧巴馬什麽都不會改,什麽都不能變:政策,人事….而他的經濟刺激計劃更像是玩大富翁–只要手氣好,RP強,收拾殘局沒問題.

眾人皆醉獨他醒.11年前亞洲金融危機時他提出控制資金流(controls on capital outflows)的言論當時被業內認為是可怕的(horribly),非正統的(unorthodox),不負責任的(irresposible)建議.11年后又一次金融危機到來的時候,資金控制已經成了IMF緊急救助計劃的一個主要組成部分.什麽是真知灼見?搬來海賊王里一句臺詞:男人做事響當當嘛…

那么,讓我們再懷念一下那句不知道是誰說過的名言:一個好的懷疑論者,不是一個好公民.

原文鏈接:http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/20/aig/

AIG

Preliminary thoughts on the tax bill:

1. It’s not the way you should make policy — it’s clumsy, and it will punish some innocent parties while letting the most guilty off scot-free

2. But — there wasn’t much alternative at this point. And for that I blame the Obama people.

I’ll leave to others the question of who knew or should have known that the bonus firestorm was coming; but it’s part of a pattern. At every stage, Geithner et al
have made it clear that they still have faith in the people who created
the financial crisis — that they believe that all we have is a
liquidity crisis that can be undone with a bit of financial
engineering, that “governments do a bad job of running banks” (as
opposed, presumably, to the wonderful job the private bankers have
done), that financial bailouts and guarantees should come with no
strings attached.

This was bad analysis, bad policy, and terrible politics. This
administration, elected on the promise of change, has already managed,
in an astonishingly short time, to create the impression that it’s
owned by the wheeler-dealers. And that leaves it with no ability to counter crude populism.